Social-Ecological Dynamics of Marine Resource Use in Peru
Chairs: Ben Nagel & Michael Kriegl
Enriched by the Humboldt Current upwelling, Peru’s seas are a major center for marine resource production. Peru is currently the 4th largest contributor to capture fisheries production globally (particularly anchoveta), and a growing hub for aquaculture production including high-value scallops exported primarily to European markets. Yet, Peru’s marine resource sectors and the livelihoods dependent on them face a high degree of uncertainty from complex social-ecological challenges. This includes significant system fluctuations, notably from El Niño Southern Oscillation, which are difficult to predict, as well as increasing climate and anthropogenic impacts. At the same time, marine resource activities in Peru are often highly informal in nature, and local livelihoods face major challenges from limited legal protection and financial supports, high degree of economic uncertainty and safety risks. ZMT has a long history of collaborative research addressing challenges such as these in Peru. This panel brings together many of the diverse recent and ongoing ZMT research works aimed at addressing the marine and coastal social-ecological dilemmas facing Peru. Through this, we want to stimulate discussions on the interactions between ecological processes and human activities in Peru’s coastal regions, promoting interdisciplinary research that supports sustainable resource use and resilient livelihoods amidst future challenges.
Foto: Michael Kriegel
12:15
Understanding Marine Social-Ecological Systems in Peru: ZMT research in a unique seascape through time
by Michael Kriegl | Ben Nagel |
ZMT | ZMT
Peru’s coastal and marine ecosystems are among the most productive in the world, supporting the nation’s position as the fourth largest contributor to global capture fisheries and a growing hub for aquaculture production. However, these marine resource sectors are embedded in complex social-ecological systems that face significant challenges: From the system fluctuations induced by El Niño Southern Oscillation and the impacts of climate change, to issues of informality, economic precarity, and uncertainty for local livelihoods, the dynamics of Peru’s marine resource use are multifaceted and continuously changing.
For decades, ZMT has engaged in collaborative research in Peru, exploring the intricate connections between ecological processes and human activities. This introductory talk will outline the history and scope of ZMT’s research efforts, highlight key milestones and provide an overview of ongoing and future initiatives (e.g. TropEcS strategic extension). Across social and natural sciences, ZMT’s work in this country offers critical insights into navigating uncertainty and change in coastal regions. By sharing this journey through time, we aim to inspire interdisciplinary dialogue for the sustainable future of Peru’s marine resources and set the scene for the ZAC Peru session at 2pm, where presenters will share some of their recent and ongoing research exploring these challenges.
14:00
A spatio-temporal ecosystem model for the Northern Humboldt Current Ecosystem, incorporating regional ocean projections and stakeholder input
by Giovanni Romagnoni | Stefan Koenigstein | Jorge Tam | Marc Taylor | Dante Espinoza-Morriberón | Matthias Wolff | Hauke Reuter
ZMT; Center for Ocean and Society & Department of Agricultural Economics, University of Kiel, Germany | ZMT; artec Sustainability Research Centre, Universität Bremen, Germany | Instituto del Mar del Perú (IMARPE), Callao, Perú | Thünen Institute of Sea Fisheries, Bremerhaven, Germany | Instituto del Mar del Perú (IMARPE), Callao, Perú | ZMT | ZMT
The Northern Humboldt Current (NHC; Peru) is a highly dynamic upwelling system hosting one of the world’s most productive fisheries, Peruvian anchoveta, and a huge variety of small-scale fisheries resources. We have developed the first spatial version of the ‘Ecopath with Ecosim’ (EwE) food-web model for the NHC. Model development has been guided by stakeholder input, identifying key environmental links to species of interest, socialecological concerns and adaptation options for user groups in coastal Peru.
Primary concerns identified by stakeholder were El Niño events and their impacts on species availability and coastal infrastructure, the anticipated poleward distribution shifts of important fish stocks and advancing tropicalization associated with climate change. Both the temporal module (Ecosim) and the spatio-temporal data framework in Ecospace were set up to incorporate dynamic input on temperature, oxygen, oceanographic currents and plankton biomasses, from a regionally downscaled ocean-biogeochemical model (CROCOPISCES) hindcast spanning 1993-2022. With environmental drivers affecting productivity and spatial distribution of key functional groups, the model is fitted to historical time series of biomass, catch, and fishing effort. The model allows us to incorporate ecosystem variability and produce future projections of ecosystem and fisheries dynamics to 2100, from downscaled ocean projections for the NHC, under different global greenhouse gas emission pathways and regionalized socio-economic-political scenarios.
Possible individual and societal co-designed adaptation strategies to projected ecosystem changes will be tested in the EwE model and evaluated by stakeholders in Peru. This enables the assessment of hurdles to adaptation and governance challenges, e.g. with regard to conflicts among user groups, approaching to tipping points and the identification of robust and fair adaptation strategies to future climate change impacts in a highly productive and variable ecosystem.
Exploring Trophic Dynamics and Adaptive Management in Peru’s Interconnected Coastal Marine Ecosystems: Insights from Independencia Bay
by Alonso Del Solar Escardó | Giovanni Romagnoni | Jorge Tam | Matthias Wolff
ZMT | ZMT, CeOS Kiel | IMARPE | ZMT, University of Bremen
Independencia Bay, a highly productive coastal upwelling system in Peru, supports a vibrant scallop aquaculture industry and artisanal fisheries targeting diverse marine resources. These resources are exploited using diverse fishing methods, with purse seines and trawls accounting for most catches. These activities are vulnerable to marine heatwaves (MHWs) and El Niño (EN) events, which manifest as extraordinary (e.g., 1982-1983, 1997-1998) or coastal (e.g., 1925, 2017) warming episodes. Extraordinary EN events boost scallop productivity and attract increased fishing effort, while Coastal ENs primarily induce fish migration and fishing pressure shifts, often linked to collapses in northern scallop populations.
This study used an Ecopath with Ecosim (EwE) model to explore the ecosystem responses of Independencia Bay under scenarios of increased warming event frequencies. We examined biomass dynamics and the effectiveness of redistributing fishing effort as an adaptive management strategy. Results indicate that the system remains resilient but overfished under frequent Coastal EN scenarios, with no biomass surges. Extraordinary ENs, by contrast, maintain higher energy throughput, bolstering catches of commercially valuable species such as scallops, octopus, and rock crabs. Redistribution of fishing effort shows promise, particularly under extraordinary EN scenarios, enhancing catch yields and mitigating overexploitation risks.
By examining these dynamics, this research highlights the interconnected nature of Peru’s coastal marine ecosystems, where environmental and fisheries-related drivers in one region often ripple through others. The findings underscore the importance of integrated management frameworks that account for ecological connectivity, teleconnectivity effects, and socio-economic dependencies. Refining adaptive strategies, such as effort redistribution, will be crucial to building resilience and ensuring sustainable resource use in the face of increasing climate variability.
Stock assessment of river prawn, Cryphiops caementarius, 1782 in Majes-Camaná River, Arequipa region, southern Peru
by Oluwayemisi Adebisi Osodein | Matthias Wolff | Marc Hollis Taylor | Javier Oscar Zavaleta-Flores | Jorge Tam | Giovanni Romagnoni | Alonso del Solar
University of Bremen | ZMT | Thünen-Institute of Sea Fisheries | Instituto del Mar del Perú | Instituto del Mar del Perú | ZMT | ZMT
Cryphiops caementarius is the only freshwater prawn that sustains artisanal fishery in Peru. This study assessed its stock in the Majes-Camaná river using monthly length-frequency data from the Peruvian Marine Research Institute for analysis. Growth parameters were estimated using TropFishR and fishboot packages, with L∞ fixed at 130 mm for males and 106 mm for females, using Lmax as a proxy. Total (Z) and natural (M) mortality were estimated from the linearized length converted catch curve and the Tanaka and Sekharan estimator, M = -ln(P)/Tmax (year-1) respectively. Yield-per-recruit and spawning potential ratio analyses were performed. The larger specimens are predominantly males, while females dominate the smaller sizes. Growth rates differ between sexes (males: K = 0.57 year-1, Ø = 3.96; females:K = 0.60 year-1, Ø is 3.80), with males reaching larger sizes, and developing a chela for territorial defence, while females grow faster and mature earlier. M was slightly higher in females (0.85 year-1) compared to males (0.78 year-1) while Z, Fcurrent and Ecurrent rates were higher in males (2.50 year-1, 1.72 year-1, 0.69 year-1, respectively) than females (1.88 year-1, 1.03 year-1, 0.55 year-1). The SPR values suggest that there is no spawning or recruitment problem, likely because the current closed season and minimum size at capture provides protection for the spawners. The YPR analysis suggests that Fcurrent and Ecurrent rates are below Fmax and Emax respectively, with higher values for males, indicating that the prawn population has as yet sustained the intense fishing over decades. However, our results suggest that males may become more vulnerable in the future if effort increases and a more sex-balanced fishery should be established. If the current size at first capture (70 mm) would be increased to 80 mm in males and remained at 70 mm in females, the YPR may be increased.
Participatory Modelling at the Intersection of Social and Natural Sciences: Exploring Social-Ecological Futures in Coastal Peru
by Michael Kriegl | Ben Nagel | Achim Schlüter
ZMT | ZMT | ZMT
Tropical coastal systems are characterized by complex interactions between ecological processes and human activities. Effectively managing these systems requires holistic approaches that integrate scientific insights with local knowledge.
In this work, we developed a qualitative social-ecological network model to investigate the dynamics of the coastal resource use sector in Sechura Bay, Peru. By collaborating with local stakeholders from diverse backgrounds and experts from the social and natural sciences, we identified and mapped key system components and their interactions. This process integrated ecological expertise with social perspectives, resulting in a comprehensive model that captures the essential dynamics of the local social-ecological system.
We then applied dynamic network analysis and qualitative mathematical modelling to ask “What if …?” questions and explore the outcomes of potential future scenarios. This approach provides deeper insights into the direct and indirect effects of management strategies, societal dynamics and environmental changes on both coastal communities and ecosystems, allowing stakeholders to anticipate future challenges, evaluate the sustainability of interventions, and better adapt to changing conditions.
Our goal is to develop an accessible and versatile decision-support tool that can be easily applied in data-limited settings in tropical regions around the world. By combining participatory methods with network modelling tools, the presented approach fosters interdisciplinary collaboration and lays the foundation for broader modelling initiatives. Integrating diverse perspectives supports inclusive and informed decision-making for effective resource management in tropical coastal systems.
Mental models of coastal marine resource governance in Sechura Bay, Peru
by Ben Nagel | Achim Schlüter | Michael Kriegl
ZMT | ZMT | ZMT
Sechura Bay is a highly productive marine resource system in northern coastal Peru, but rapid institutional changes and increasing climate impacts make the future uncertain for local livelihoods dependent on the bay. Governance of the bay involves a complex arrangement of formal institutional structures dominated by large processing firms and private property regimes, yet still characterized by many informal arrangements and activities, conflict and corruption, as well as a high degree of uncertainty from climate and environmental change. In our working package in phase 2 of the Humboldt Tipping project, we applied a participatory modeling approach called fuzzy cognitive mapping (FCM), through a series of iterative workshop activities to model this complex social-ecological system from the perspective of local people: What are their “mental models” of the important system dynamics, outcomes, and perceived potential futures for the Sechura marine resource system, and what do these models tell us about local priorities, preferences, and potential adaptive behaviors? In this presentation I reflect on our experiences, benefits, and limitations using FCM for (1) navigating shared decision-making in marine resource governance, by exploring similarities and differences between mental models, and for (2) navigating uncertainty in marine resource governance, by using mental models and “what-if?” simulations as a tool for developing and discussing potential future governance scenarios and adaptation strategies. Finally, I briefly summarize how our application of FCM served as an exploratory tool which informed the development of four additional research studies through our ASA early career research program partnership.
15:15
Associativity, Privatization, and Hybrid Institutions in the Mariculture Sector of Sechura Bay, Piura, Peru
by Carlos Núñez Beingolea
PUCP (Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú)
This research examines the transformation of mariculture in the Sechura Bay (1987–2024), focusing on how the shift from collective associativity to a privatization model has restructured productive processes and socioeconomic relations in the region. In the early years, scallop production was organized through local associations that collectively managed productive areas. However, with the implementation of legal frameworks such as the 2016 General Aquaculture Law, usage authorizations were converted into transferable concessions, promoting the concentration of productive areas in the hands of large enterprises and undermining the associative logic.
This process facilitated the privatization of over 60% of the productive maritime space, displacing small-scale producers and workers known as “pamperos,” who were relegated to informality or subcontracted labor. The erosion of associativity and the rising regulatory costs led many small-scale mariculturists to engage in illicit practices, such as scallop laundering and the trafficking of usage authorizations (DER). Meanwhile, larger capital holders capitalized on private agreements and regulatory flexibility to expand their control over productive areas.
The dynamics among mariculturist guilds also shifted: councils increasingly represented concession holders, while smaller associations and displaced workers struggled for recognition and access. Although privatization boosted production and revenues, evident in the 2016 boom, it deepened inequalities and weakened the community’s social fabric.
The privatization process not only transformed productive governance but also marginalized vulnerable actors, consolidating a hybrid model where formal and informal sectors coexist within an international value chain.
The situation of the Sechura Bay scallop divers
by Sonia Velarde
Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú
This research explores the challenges and risks faced by scallop collecting divers in Sechura Bay. Through 30 in-depth interviews with these actors, dimensions such as working conditions, safety, health and fair trade were addressed. Initial results indicate that divers face precarious working conditions, with significant risks to their health in the short and long term, resulting from the lack of adequate safety protocols and limited access to health services. This work, part of the Humboldt Tipping project, provides key evidence for the development of policies that promote improvements in the safety and well-being of these workers, proposing a participatory and sustainable approach to the management of aquaculture activity in the Humboldt upwelling system.
Keywords: divers, working conditions, occupational health, aquaculture, fair trade, Sechura Bay, socio-ecological adaptation.
Oil, female subjectivity and the expansion of the extractive frontier
by Jeremy Mora Loria
Sociology – University of Bremen – ASA
Historically, many communities have been forced to change their lifestyle and the cultural and economic activities linked to them, due to the advance of extractivist projects. For example, the landscape of the coastal towns of the province of Talara, originally founded by sechuran fishermen is nowadays dominated by oil pumping stations and its ocean pinned with oil platforms.
To prevent these types of “development”, communities often refer to a shared identity in order to use it as a political tool to decide on the use of resources in a given space inherently connected to that identity. So far, the narrative of “pesca si, petróleo no” has helped the fishermen in Sechura to keep the oil companies out of the bay. Although this is a powerful tool, people living at the extractive frontier are not extent to processes of extractive subject formation.
As we can see in Talara, neighboring province of Sechura and once a place where people were highly dependent on and identified with the oil sector, nowadays, there is more than just oil, since power relations have changed. Nonetheless, oil companies use several power strategies in order to reshape subjects in a way, they present no harm for the expansion of the extractive frontier.
Given the constant pressure of oil companies on the Bay of Sechura and since it is women whose subjectivity has been reshaped over decades to maintain hierarchies of power that are essential to the expansion of extractivist activities, in my research I use the concept of “political subjectivation” to examine how the refashioning of the female subject affects the expansion of the oil industry in northern Peru.
Climate Crisis Threat and Collective Action
by Katharina von der Kaus
ZMT / ASA / Uni Leipzig
How does the salient threat of climate crisis affect collective action? To investigate if people engage in more collective action to buffer psychological consequence of climate crisis threat a qualitative survey of N > 400 was performed in Sechura, Peru. The hypothesis is that salient climate crisis threat increases conventional and radical behavior intentions. Furthermore, a second semi-experimental factor was included to the survey to test a potential main effect and moderation. This factor comprises the objective impact of climate crisis on the people in the region in which the survey is conducted. As the region is economically heavily dependent on the sea and its resources and this is threatened by climate crisis, a distinction is made between the group of people who earn their main income from the sea (fishers & aquaculture) and those who earn their main income on land. It is assumed that a stronger objective concern increases ethnocentric responses and amplifies the threat effect on ethnocentric responses.
This research is part of the Humbold Tipping Project and ASA program and seeks to enhance the understanding of the implications of climate crisis on conflict. Thereby this research not only focuses on material conditions influencing conflict but also the psychological susceptibility due to perceived loss of control.